Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense activated: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a assumption well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
