Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
